NON-GOVERNMENTAL SAMPLE SURVEYS OF THE POPULATION IN THE SOCIAL SPHERE: INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR UKRAINE

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to examine international experience in the use of non-official household panel surveys in countries that have experienced large-scale socio-economic shocks (wars, crises, mass migration and displacement), intending to substantiate the feasibility and appropriateness of applying similar approaches in Ukraine to fill the gap in microdata on labour supply, household responses to shocks, and policy modelling for the reintegration of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and veterans under conditions of a longterm absence of official statistics.

The full-scale war in Ukraine since 2022 has led to the complete suspension of the official sample surveys, resulting in the emergence of a “blind zone” in representative microdata on the labour market and the quality of life of households. The article analyses panel studies such as the Syrians Barometer in Turkey, JHPS/KHPS in Japan, ELSOC in Chile, and HAALSA in South Africa. All projects share a panel design, a focus on vulnerable population groups, detailed modules on quality of life, health, and responses to shocks, as well as open access to microdata. The paper proposes adapting these templates for Ukraine through regional stratification (frontline, western, and central regions), dedicated modules for IDPs and veterans, inclusion of asset losses, return intentions, and the assessment of household resilience. It is shown that an independent Ukrainian panel survey is critically important for microsimulation modelling of reintegration policies, forecasting the impacts of housing programmes, veterans’ employment programmes, pension system needs, and post-war recovery as an issue of national economic security. The methodology includes general scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, comparison, and a systems approach) and specialised methods (content analysis of reports, publications, and questionnaires; logical-structural analysis for adaptation; and the method of analogies for transferring solutions). The information base consists of reports and publications of the reviewed projects, as well as materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine related to the Survey of living conditions of households, the Labor force survey, the Survey of Agricultural activity of the population in rural areas, and the Representative Survey of the socio-economic situation of households. The results are relevant for employment policy development, the reintegration of IDPs and veterans, and forecasting the labour market effects of large-scale shocks. The scientific novelty lies in a systematic comparison of methodological solutions used in international panel projects from the perspective of their adaptation to the Ukrainian context and in the development of a ready-made template for a Ukrainian household panel survey. Future research perspectives include the design of a Ukrainian panel survey, harmonisation with international standards, the creation of an open microdata base, and the testing of microsimulation models to assess policy impacts on the labour supply of vulnerable groups in the post-war period.

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