DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF UKRAINIAN FORCED MIGRATION TO THE CZECH REPUBLIC FOLLOWING THE RUSSIAN FULL-SCALE INVASION

Abstract

The paper examines the scale and dynamics of Ukrainian forced migration to the Czech Republic following the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the demographic characteristics of Ukrainian war migrants, and the impact of this migration wave on the demographic situation in the Czech Republic. The study aimed to analyze the specific features of migration caused by the full-scale war, its reflection in demographic statistics, and to define the demographic profile of Ukrainian war migration to the Czech Republic. The research utilized statistical data provided by the Czech Statistical Office (Český statistický úřad) and applied methods of systematization and generalization, structural-logical and comparative analysis, statistical methods of structure and dynamics analysis, graphical data representation, and others. This type of study regarding Ukrainian war migrants to the Czech Republic has been conducted for the first time. Among European countries, the Czech Republic ranks third in the number of forced migrants from Ukraine, accumulating 8.4 % of the total number of Ukrainian war migrants in the European Union. It was found that the reflection of this migration wave in demographic statistics is influenced by organizational and accounting circumstances, such as the terms and procedures for extending temporary protection for war migrants, and the lack of specific “markers” in the statistics of demographic events for persons under temporary protection. Ukrainian war migration in the year of the Russian full-scale invasion led to a record increase in positive migration balance in the Czech Republic and increase in the share of individuals with Ukrainian citizenship in this country. The forced war migration wave in 2022 affected the demographic composition of both individuals with Ukrainian citizenship and the entire population of the Czech Republic through an increased share of women, who predominate among war migrants, and a slight slowdown in ageing and an increase in the share of the working-age population for two consecutive years. Among Ukrainians under temporary protection in the Czech Republic, there is a particularly high share of women aged 35 to 45 and boys aged 17—18, and also high proportion of children aged 10 to 14. During the years of the full-scale war, the number of marriages registered between Ukrainians in the Czech Republic has increased. In 2022—2023, due to the wave of war migration, the number of newborns with Ukrainian citizenship in the Czech Republic significantly increased, and their share in the total number of births among foreigners rose (by almost 30 percentage points in two years), although the total fertility rate of Ukrainian women was noticeably lower than the national average. The number of deaths among individuals with Ukrainian citizenship also increased due to the influx of war migrants, but this had a negligible impact on the level of mortality.

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