(NOT) A MAN’S BUSINESS?! UKRAINIAN MEN’S MIGRATION ABROAD DURING THE FULL-SCALE INVASION

Abstract

The migration of Ukrainians abroad during the full-scale war is taking place amid restrictions on men of draft age crossing the state border. This has significantly influenced the structure of forced migration from Ukraine throughout the years of the war, though it does not fully determine it. The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the forced migration of Ukrainian men abroad and to determine its place within the overall structure of forced migration from Ukraine. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the development of a comprehensive empirical profile of Ukrainian male forced migrants, the identification of their socio-demographic, economic, and behavioral characteristics, and the identification of trends in their evolution throughout the full-scale war. The study employs a range of scientific methods: sampling surveys, analysis and synthesis, generalization, grouping, and comparison. The study is based on empirical data collected during four waves of surveys of for ced migrants from Ukraine abroad (excluding Russia and Belarus), carried out on behalf of the Center for Economic Strategy in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025—2026. Each survey wave covered 1,000 respondents. It was found that over the course of the full-scale war, the gender composition of Ukrainian forced migrants abroad has undergone significant changes. In the first wave of the survey (2022), men accounted for 16.2% of Ukrainians abroad, while by early 2026, this share had increased to 41.7%. Asymmetries were identified in the demographic composition of forced migrants by gender, particularly with regard to age and the number of children. Among men, there was a relatively higher proportion of individuals in younger and older age groups who, at the time of leaving Ukraine, were either not yet subject to or were no longer subject to mobilization restrictions. There was also a higher proportion of fathers with three or more children. Male forced migrants exhibit a higher level of socioeconomic integration in their host countries than women. They are more likely to have established social ties, live with family members, and occupy more favorable positions in the labor market. Specifically, they are more likely to be self-employed, work in their field of specialization, or hold jobs that correspond to or exceed their previous level of qualification. Changes in return intentions were identified by gender. At the initial stage of the fullscale war, no statistically significant gender differences in intentions to return to Ukraine were observed; however, these differences became increasingly pronounced over time. The latest survey wave showed that men were significantly more likely than women to associate their future with living abroad. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating gen derspecific considerations into the development of Ukraine’s migration policy, particularly policies aimed at the return and reintegration of forced migrants. They may also be used to forecast the migration behaviour of Ukrainian forced migrants and to assess their return potential after the end of the war.

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