POPULATION OF KYIV: ESTIMATION OF THE ACTUAL NUMBER AND MIGRATION PROSPECTS
Keywords:migration, actual population, unregistered population, migration forecasting
The article is devoted to the formation of scientifically grounded estimation of the actual population of Kyiv, based on the results of similar assessments made in 2009-2011, and taking into account the transformations of socio-economic development of Ukraine, which took place during the last decade, as well as the development of the migration forecast of the population in city by 2040. The relevance of the study is due to the presence of large contingents of unregistered population in the capital, accordingly, official data on the population of Kiev are understated. The novelty of the study is a refined methodology for estimating the actual population of Kyiv, as well as identifying promising trends in population migration in the capital of Ukraine. The analysis of the migration situation in the city is carried out, special attention is paid to the new type of migration of the population — the movement of internally displaced persons. Based on the methodological approaches developed during the study, the number of the actual population of Kyiv was estimated. Four methods of determining the actual population of the city were developed, based on the results of which a generalized assessment was made. The actual population of Kyiv as of the beginning of 2018 is estimated at 3361.6 thousand people, that is, the number of unregistered population exceeds 468.4 thousand or nearly 14 % of the actual population. On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of migration processes, a prospective assessment of the future migration situation in the city has been made. The demographic forecast of Kyiv and, in particular, the forecast of migration of the population of the city, was developed in two variants. The realistic variant of the forecast describes the most likely scenario of development, based on the peculiarities of the dynamics of individual components of natural and mechanical mo vement of the population and the corresponding achieved level of indicators. The optimistic variant is likely in the context of rapid renewal of favorable trends in socio-economic development and successful implementation of national demographic policies. Hypotheses of the forecast of migration of the population till 2040 are developed, the results of the calculation of the forecast of the number and sex-age structure of the population at the beginning of 2041 and the forecast estimate for the period till the beginning of 2061 are presented.
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