EXTERNAL LABOR MIGRATION FROM UKRAINE: THE IMPACT OF COVID-19
Keywords:external labor migration, COVID-19 pandemic, impact assessment, forecasting, migration policy
The article is devoted to the assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on the tendencies of external labor migration from Ukraine. The relevance of the work is due to the limited analytical research on population migration during the pandemic. Until the beginning of 2020, changes in the formation of external labor migration flows occurred mainly under the infl uence of the internal situation in the country and the transformation of Ukraine’s political relations with certain foreign countries, but under COVID-19, the trends of external labor migration from Ukraine have changed radically for reasons independent of the socio-economic situation in Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to assess the changes in the scale of labor migration due to COVID-19 and to determine the prospects for external labor migration of Ukrainians. Relevant analytical developments became the basis for the formation of recommendations for adjusting the migration policy of Ukraine in the pandemic and post-pandemic periods. The novelty of the study is to determine the impact of COVID-19 on the parameters of external labor migration from Ukraine and to assess probable perspective future transformations of migration trends. Abstract-logical and systema tic approaches, the method of expert assessments are used in the study. The analysis of the migration situation in Ukraine in recent years is carried out, the latest changes in the directions and scales of external labor migration are identifi ed. The tendencies of international population movement aft er the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic are analyzed. Prospects for external migration of the population of Ukraine are determined. The future of this process will depend on the pace of economic recovery in Europe and the world at large and the local demand for labor from other countries. It is probable that the employment structure of Ukrainian labor migrants will change by type of activity: migrants who were not employed in agriculture before the pandemic will not resume work so soon, and those who remained in the recipient countries will try to fi nd employment in agriculture and related activities. The geography of working trips will also change, and a new reorientation of some migrants is probable — from Eastern Europe to Western Europe, especially Germany and the United Kingdom, which are far ahead of traditional Ukrainian employment countries (Poland, the Czech Republic and even Italy) in terms of wages. A key element of the policy of keeping some migrants in Ukraine is a radical non-declarative change in the state’s attitude to small and medium-sized businesses. It is necessary to involve representatives of small and medium business to public policy, including policy of withdrawal from quarantine, business support. Eff ective business support programs should also be implemented, in particular following the example of EU countries. For those migrants who, even under the best conditions, are not interested in starting a business in Ukraine, a strategy is needed to ensure that, on the one hand, these people are not lost to Ukraine, and on the other hand, to get the most out of working with the diaspora. This will help both to improve the situation in the economy and to improve the image and strengthen Ukraine’s infl uence in the world.
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