ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, INSTITUTIONAL VULNERABILITY, AND DEMOGRAPHIC RISKS IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The article examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) development on socio-economic and demographic processes under conditions of digital transformation and growing global competition for human capital. It is shown that the diffusion of AI is associated not only with productivity gains but also with increasing social risks, including structural changes in labour markets and the intensification of selective migration of the working-age population. The aim of the article is to assess the impact of AI development on socio-economic and demographic processes and to substantiate the potential of AI-based tools for monitoring, modelling, and early detection of demographic risks in the context of institutional vulnerability and migration dynamics in Ukraine during 1991—2025.

Special attention is paid to demographic dynamics in Ukraine during 1991—2025 in the context of state institutional vulnerability. Using the Fragile States Index (FSI), with a focus on the indicator of human flight and brain drain (E3), the study applies an AI-oriented analytical framework to explore the relationship between institutional conditions and migration processes. The novelty of the study lies in conceptualizing artificial intelligence not only as a driver of technological change but also as an analytical instrument for formalizing and quantifying the relationship between demographic processes and institutional vulnerability, including the empirical validation of a statistically significant link between rising fragility and migration outflows. The results indicate a non-linear and cumulative pattern of migration outflows, which intensifies sharply once critical levels of institutional vulnerability are reached. The research employs an AI-oriented analytical framework that combines classical econometric modelling, time-series analysis, correlation-regression techniques, and machine learning methods to detect non-linear effects, threshold dynamics, structural breaks, and lagged interactions in demographic trends. The article substantiates the relevance of artificial intelligence as a tool for monitoring and early warning of demographic risks and for supporting preventive demographic and socio-economic policy in periods of profound institutional and technological transformation.

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